好适合是复制的弱证据:通过先前预测相似性检查来增加严格性
Wes Bonifay1, Sonja D Winter1, Hanamori F Skoblow1
1University of Missouri, Columbia, USA.
Assessment
|March 15, 2024
概括
心理学中的复制研究通常依赖于适合的良性 (GOF),但这可以隐藏差异. 贝叶斯预先预测相似性检查提供了一种更好的方法来评估复制数据是否真正与原始发现相匹配.
科学领域:
- 心理学研究方法论心理学研究方法论
- 量化心理学 量化心理学
- 计算建模计算建模
背景情况:
- 复制对于验证心理学理论至关重要,包括基于模型的研究.
- 合适度 (GOF) 通常用于评估复制成功,但可能会掩盖关键的差异.
- 现有的方法可能无法充分捕捉原始和复制研究数据模式和参数估计之间的相似性.
研究的目的:
- 引入贝叶斯预先预测相似性检查作为评估基于模型的复制的严格方法.
- 为了证明GOF在评估经验复制时的局限性.
- 将GOF与贝叶斯预先预测相似性检查使用现实数据进行比较.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯预先预测相似性检查的应用在国家共发病率调查的原始和复制数据上.
- 评估数据模式和参数估计,以确定研究之间的相似性.
- 从GOF获得的结果与拟议的相似性检查方法的比较.
主要成果:
- 原始和复制数据集都显示出出色的GOF.
- 贝叶斯之前的预测相似性检查经常表明缺乏密切或近似的经验复制.
- 在共同差异模式和指标值方面,差异尤其明显.
结论:
- 作为成功复制的唯一指标,GOF可能会误导.
- 贝叶斯预先预测相似性检查提供了对实证复制的更敏感和更严格的评估.
- 建议包括采用注册报告和利用基于模型的研究的相似性检查.
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