构建和验证一个名录模型,以预测肺部密码球菌病患者的不良预后
Xiaoli Tan1, Yingqing Zhang1, Jianying Zhou2
1Department of Respiratory, The Affiliated Hospital of Jiaxing University, Jiaxing, China.
PeerJ
|March 15, 2024
概括
这项研究确定了预测肺部密码球菌病 (PC) 结果不佳的关键因素. 开发了一个预测模型,以帮助临床管理和改善患者的预后.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 临床预测模型临床预测模型
背景情况:
- 肺部密码球菌病 (PC) 具有重大风险,包括脑膜感染,复发和死亡率.
- 确定预后不佳的患者对于及时干预和改善结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析影响PC患者预后不佳的因素.
- 开发和验证用于PC预后的预测性诺莫格拉姆模型.
主要方法:
- 对525名PC患者的回顾性分析,分为培训 (70%) 和验证 (30%) 集.
- 使用最小绝对收缩和选择操作员 (LASSO) 进行特征选择.
- 多变量逻辑回归和名ogram构造用于预测.
主要成果:
- 心理症状,细胞毒药物,白血球,血红素,血小板,CRP,PCT,白蛋白和CD4/CD8比率被确定为独立预测因素.
- 诺米图的AUC值为0.851 (培训) 和0.949 (验证).
- 校准曲线和决策曲线分析证实了模型的准确性和临床实用性.
结论:
- 开发的名图表显示了PC预后不佳的强有力的预测性能.
- 这个模型可以帮助优化PC患者的临床管理策略.
- 帮助临床医生识别有风险的患者,以改善治疗方法.
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