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气候变化将影响整个美国中部地区的地表水量和动态
Melanie K Vanderhoof1, Jay R Christensen2, Laurie C Alexander3
1Geoscience and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, USA.
概括
气候变化可能会减少美国中部的地表水,增加干旱影响. 由于降水量增加,一些北部地区可能会看到更多的水.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 气候变化对水生生态系统和水文学产生重大影响.
- 地表水面积是生态系统健康和生产力的关键指标.
- 了解区域对气候变化的水文反应对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的气候变化场景下,在美国中部预测未来的地表水面积变化.
- 评估气候变化对河流,湖泊和湿地水文学的影响.
- 确定最容易受到干旱和干旱频率增加的地区.
主要方法:
- 综合 Sentinel-1 和 Sentinel-2 卫星数据,绘制月度地表水面范围 (2017-2021).
- 开发了特定地点的统计模型,以考虑景观差异.
- 利用MACA-CMIP5全球循环模型来定义未来的气候变化预测 (2061-2080与2006-2025).
主要成果:
- 预计32个美国中部地区中的19个 (RCP4.5) 和22个 (RCP8.5) 地区的年度地表水面积将下降.
- 干旱在美国东南部,西南部和中西部中部地区最为一致,这表明干旱脆弱性增加.
- 预计的下降因季节性变化而变化,夏季和秋季下降幅度最大;一些中北部地区可能会增加.
结论:
- 预计未来的气候变化将减少美国中部大部分地区的地表水供应.
- 在脆弱地区,干旱频率和严重程度可能会增加.
- 地区对气候变化的水文反应复杂且季节性依赖,在一些北部地区可能会增加降水量.
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