预测韩国的癌症发病率和死亡率,2024年
Kyu-Won Jung1,2, Mee Joo Kang1,2, Eun Hye Park1,2
1Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
Cancer research and treatment
|March 15, 2024
概括
预计在2024年,韩国将面临292,221例新的癌症病例和83,770例死亡. 甲状腺癌,结肠直肠癌,肺癌,乳腺癌和胃癌将是最常见的,肺癌造成的死亡人数最多.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 癌症仍然是全球和韩国的重大公共卫生问题.
- 准确的癌症负担估计对于有效的公共卫生干预和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测韩国2024年的癌症发病率和死亡率.
- 为了估计韩国目前的癌症负担.
- 为癌症控制计划规划和评估提供数据.
主要方法:
- 利用了韩国国家癌症发病率数据库 (1999-2021) 和韩国统计局的死亡率数据 (1993-2022).
- 针对特定年龄的癌症发病率使用线性回归模型和结点回归来确定趋势变化.
- 预计的2024年癌症率是通过将预测的年龄特定率乘以预计的2024年人口来计算的.
主要成果:
- 据估计,在2024年,韩国预计将有292,221例新的癌症病例和83,770例死亡.
- 预计最常见的癌症是甲状腺,结肠和直肠,肺,乳腺和胃,占病例的55.7%.
- 预计肺癌将是癌症死亡的主要原因,其次是肝癌,结肠直肠癌,胰腺癌和胃癌.
结论:
- 预计女性乳腺癌和前列腺癌的年龄标准化发病率将上升.
- 这些预测为韩国开发和评估癌症控制策略提供了至关重要的资源.
- 该研究强调了对癌症监测和干预计划的持续需求.
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