经常获胜者在基于经验的决策中解释了明显的偏偏好
Sebastian Olschewski1,2, Mikhail S Spektor3,4, Gaël Le Mens4,5,6
1Department of Psychology, University of Basel, 4055 Basel, Switzerland.
概括
人们的选择取决于结果分布的对称性. 一个"频繁获胜者效应"解释了在基于经验的决策中明显偏向左倾选项的偏好,调和金融市场和实验发现.
科学领域:
- 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
背景情况:
- 金融投资者更喜欢右倾的回报 (频繁的小收益,罕见的大损失).
- 基于经验的决策实验经常显示对左倾结果的偏好.
- 现有的模型很难调和这些相互矛盾的观察.
研究的目的:
- 调查结果分配偏差对基于经验的决策中的选择的影响.
- 调和金融市场和实验性决策之间的相互矛盾的发现.
- 确定驱动偏好偏差分布的机制.
主要方法:
- 进行了七项研究,操纵了结果分布,并确定了"频繁获胜者效应".
- 使用强化学习模型进行计算分析.
- 多样化的结果分布和实验范式来测试强度.
主要成果:
- 对左倾分布的明显偏好源于"频繁获胜者效应",其中更频繁的结果受到青.
- 选择倾向可以通过改变哪个选项是频繁的赢家来操纵,即使分布相同.
- 还发现了对右倾分布的内在偏好的证据.
结论:
- "频繁获胜者效应"解释了基于经验的决策的偏好,解决与金融市场行为的差异.
- 决策理论必须考虑共同结果分布如何影响选择.
- 了解偏差偏好对于准确的经济和金融决策模型至关重要.
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