预测患者的死亡风险的模型,燃烧到总体表面≥50%的患者的死亡风险
Yiran Wang1, Chenghao Cai1, Zhikang Zhu1
1Department of Burns & Wound Care Center, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University College of Medicine, Hangzhou, China; The Key Laboratory of the Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Trauma and Burn of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Center of Clinical Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Department of Scientific Research, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University College of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
概括
现有的死亡风险模型可能无法准确预测患有广泛烧伤 (≥50%的总体表面积) 患者的结果. 一种新的名图表显示出高准确度,并为这一关键患者群体的临床决策提供了帮助.
科学领域:
- 烧伤伤害研究研究
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 预测模型的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 现有的死亡率预测模型对于严重烧伤患者 (≥50%的TBSA) 可能缺乏准确性.
- 对于这种高风险人群,需要改进预测工具.
研究的目的:
- 评估现有模型并开发一种新的,准确的死亡率预测工具,用于广泛的烧伤患者.
- 确定严重烧伤患者死亡率的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 对465名严重烧伤患者 (≥50%的TBSA) 进行了回顾性多中心研究.
- 使用ROC和校准曲线对六种现有模型的性能评估.
- 使用后勤回归和验证通过ROC,校准和决策曲线开发新的名ogram.
主要成果:
- 周等等. 在周等. 和FLAMES模型显示出高预测能力.
- 一个新的纳米图,包括年龄,%TBSA烧伤,全厚烧伤面积和血液乳酸,显示出出色的辨别能力 (AUC从0.889到0.934不等).
- 新名图的预测非常准确,与良好的校准.
结论:
- 周等等. 在周等. 和FLAMES模型为广泛烧伤患者提供了有价值的死亡率预测.
- 新开发的诺姆图是一种敏感,特定和准确的工具,可以促进在治疗严重烧伤时快速做出临床决策.
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