在施工过程中对单轨铁路运输温室气体排放的不确定性分析
1Department of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|March 16, 2024
概括
本研究量化了单轨铁路建设中的温室气体 (GHG) 排放不确定性. 通过使用先进的模拟,它为评估站和段的排放提供了一个框架,指导减排战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 单轨铁路建设有助于温室气体 (GHG) 排放.
- 量化和管理这些排放对于可持续的基础设施发展至关重要.
- 排放计算的不确定性可能会阻碍有效实施环境政策.
研究的目的:
- 分析和评估单轨铁路建设期间温室气体排放的不确定性.
- 开发一个框架来评估参数,场景和模型的不确定性.
- 为单轨铁路项目的减排政策提供指导.
主要方法:
- 温室气体排放的确定性分析.
- 数据质量指标 (DQI) 的评估.
- 马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 模拟与参数不确定性的β分布.
- 对系统边界,排放因子和材料/能源输入的场景分析.
- 对模型不确定性的正常,日志正常,均和三角分布的分析.
主要成果:
- 确定性排放:车站的CO2e/m2为1.97,路段的CO2e/m2为7.55.
- 在参数,场景和模型中确定和量化不确定性.
- 建立了用于评估单轨铁路建设中温室气体排放不确定性的具体框架.
结论:
- 开发的框架提供了一种全面的方法来理解单轨铁路建设中温室气体排放的不确定性.
- 场景分析为决策提供了关于项目参数和系统界限的见解.
- 调查结果指导了减排政策,强调材料选择和全面考虑因素.
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