提高环境风险因素对未来健康负担的估计的一致性:环境空气污染的案例研究
Christopher S Malley1, Susan C Anenberg2, Drew T Shindell3
1Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York, United Kingdom.
Environment international
|March 16, 2024
概括
随着一种新的方法将空气污染暴露与人口和死亡率联系起来,未来的健康负担估计更加稳健. 这种方法揭示了颗粒物 (PM2.5) 对死亡的影响明显高于传统模型.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 人口建模的人口建模
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 当前的健康影响评估经常使用外源性人口和死亡率预测,导致不变的暴露水平.
- 这种脱节影响了未来对环境风险因素的健康负担估计的稳定性.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种结合风险因素暴露,人口动态和死亡率的替代方法.
- 作为一个案例研究,将这种方法应用于环境颗粒物 (PM2.5) 暴露.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种基于出生,死亡和移民的未来人口预测人口模型.
- 将历史死亡率分解为PM2.5归因和其他因素,并独立地预测它们.
- 预计暴露水平和人口参数之间的内置反循环.
主要成果:
- 综合模型估计PM2.5归因的死亡率要高得多 (约为2. 2050年1080万人死亡) 与使用外源预测的模型相比 (大约. 7.3 亿美元).
- 实现世卫组织PM2.5指导方针 (5μg m−3) 可能导致2050年约有7100万人比2019年恒定的PM2.5水平活着.
- 对于未来的高PM2.5度和非PM2.5死亡率的重大变化,反会计至关重要.
结论:
- 将人口因素与暴露评估相结合,可以提高未来健康负担估计的准确性.
- 拟议的方法提供了一个更强大的框架,用于评估空气污染等环境风险对人口健康的影响.
- 针对空气质量的政策干预可以产生显著的长期公共卫生效益.
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