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一个扩展的时间变化的布迪科框架,用于量化气候变化下的植被恢复在流域规模的水文效应

Yifan Zhang¹, Jianzhuang Pang¹, Hang Xu¹

¹Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, CNERN, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, PR China; National Key Laboratory of High Efficiency Forest Production, College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, PR China; Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertiﬁcation Combating, State Forestry and Grassland Administration, China, Beijing, 100083, PR China.

Environmental research

|March 16, 2024

概括

一个新的Budyko框架模型整合了植被和降水动态,改善了流域响应预测. 这种方法增强了在气候变化下生态恢复的水文建模.

科学领域:

水文和水资源管理水文和水资源管理
环境科学与生态学
气候变化影响评估气候变化影响评估

背景情况:

布迪科框架对于量化流域水文反应至关重要,但由于其稳定状态假设,它存在局限性.
植被覆盖和降雨模式 (强度,频率,持续时间) 的动态变化并未完全纳入现有模型.
准确量化植被恢复的水文效应需要改进的建模方法.

研究的目的:

开发一个创新的,时间变化的Budyko框架来量化植被恢复的水文效应.
将部分植被覆盖面 (FVC) 和降雨模式 (大降雨量和降雨天数) 纳入布迪科参数 ω.
提高流域水文反应的预测能力,特别是在气候变化下的生态恢复方面.

主要方法:

开发了一种新的方法来确定Budyko框架中的参数 ω,集成FVC,大降水量 (95pTOT) 和降水天数 (R01mm).
应用了扩展的时间变化的Budyko框架,用于中国北部的中大尺度流域.
使用纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE),根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和相对误差 (RE) 的模型,将集成参数 (ω^P-FVC) 与常数 ω (ω ̅),仅FVC (ω^P) 和仅降水 (ω^FVC) 的性能进行比较.

主要成果:

与更简单的模型相比,集成参数 ω^P-FVC显著改善了模型性能,将NSE增加了24.81%,并将RMSE和RE分别减少了64.08%和65.77%.
植被恢复 (增加FVC) 导致流量减少 (R),即使气候干燥程度增加 (PET/P).
降低降水强度 (95pTOT) 和频率 (R01mm) 放大了植被恢复的水文效应,导致R增加79.09100.31%,与单独的FVC变化相比.

结论:

扩展的时间变化的布迪科框架,包括降水制度,提供了一种更严格的方法来量化生态恢复的水文影响.
这种增强的框架为适应性流域管理提供了可靠的方法,特别是在持续气候变化的背景下.
了解植被动态和降水模式之间的相互作用对于有效的水资源管理和生态恢复至关重要.

关键词:

预算框架预算框架气候干旱性气候干旱性分解方法分解方法.降水制度降水制度降水制度植被恢复植被恢复

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