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在气候变化下的温度相关死亡率预测中整合共享社会经济路径的适应信息
Kai Wan1, Shakoor Hajat2, Ruth M Doherty3
1School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Environmental research
|March 16, 2024
概括
未来的变暖将增加苏格兰与热有关的死亡人数,超过与寒冷有关的死亡人数. 虽然适应可以减少寒冷的影响,但它不会完全抵消日益增加的热死亡,需要气候缓解.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 公共卫生影响评估
背景情况:
- 评估未来因气温升高造成的健康负担需要考虑人口适应.
- 以前的研究往往简化或忽略了适应,可能低估了未来的风险.
- 适应潜力随温度变化而变化,需要细致的建模.
研究的目的:
- 在苏格兰建模未来与温度相关的死亡负担,并纳入基于证据的适应.
- 根据各种气候变化情景 (RCP-SSP) 预测到2080年的死亡影响.
- 将死亡负担的变化归因于气候变化,人口动态和适应.
主要方法:
- 苏格兰的特征历史 (1974-2018) 温度特异性死亡风险.
- 制定了三种与共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 保持一致的未来适应情景.
- 综合气候,人口和适应预测用于死亡负担估计和分解分析.
主要成果:
- 在1980-2000年间,寒冷负担 (每年312人死亡) 超过了热负担 (每年21人死亡).
- 到2060-2080年,RCP8.5-SSP5下的预计热负荷达到1285人死亡/年;在RCP4.5-SSP4.4下的寒冷负担达到320人死亡/年.
- 在RCP2.6-SSP1下,改进的适应性显著降低了冷负荷,而在RCP8.5-SSP5.5下,温度增加推动了热负荷.
结论:
- 在苏格兰,环境热量将成为比寒冷更重要的健康决定因素.
- 仅靠适应能力就不能完全抵消预计的与热有关的死亡率的增加.
- 紧急,雄心勃勃的气候缓解措施对苏格兰和全球至关重要.
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