在澳大利亚东南部的未来气候场景下,模拟植被生产率和碳平衡的变化
Bin Wang1, Benjamin Smith2, Cathy Waters3
1NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Gulbali Institute for Agriculture, Water and Environment, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia.
The Science of the total environment
|March 17, 2024
概括
澳大利亚 澳大利亚 澳大利亚
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 碳循环研究 碳循环研究
背景情况:
- 澳大利亚多样化的生态系统对全球碳循环至关重要.
- 之前的研究量化了澳大利亚植被的生产力,但气候变化的影响仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对新南威尔士 (NSW) 的毛初级生产率 (GPP) 和净生物生产率 (NBP) 的影响.
- 为了确定新南威尔士州的生态系统是否会在未来的气候情景下成为碳汇或碳源.
主要方法:
- 使用LPJ-GUESS模型,基于27个全球气候模型和各种排放场景.
- 针对GPP (R2 = 0.58,nRMSE = 14.2%) 的状共变量流量数据验证了模型性能.
主要成果:
- 模拟的GPP显示增加了10.3-19.5% (中等排放) 和19.7-46.8% (高排放).
- 新南威尔士州未来的碳汇潜力略有下降,但存在很大的不确定性,一些模型预测碳汇容量增加.
结论:
- 排放场景显著影响新南威尔士州未来的碳动态,但气候预测的不确定性很大.
- 这项研究为了解澳大利亚自然生态系统对气候变化的反应及其在碳吸收中的作用提供了基础.
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