免疫相互作用和传播的异质性推动了英国灰松鼠的病原体介导入侵
E Howell1, A White1, P W W Lurz2
1Department of Mathematics and the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
The Journal of animal ecology
|March 18, 2024
概括
松鼠天花病毒 (SQPV) 导致英国红松鼠数量迅速减少. 模型显示红松鼠的SQPV传播率更高,加速了灰松鼠的入侵和迁移.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 野生动物疾病动力学
背景情况:
- 数学模型表明,病原体介导的入侵在野生动物生态学中至关重要.
- 松鼠天花病毒 (SQPV) 促进了英国本土红松鼠的灰松鼠迁移.
研究的目的:
- 使用新的流行病学模型和现场数据推断SQPV驱动疾病相互作用的机制基础.
- 研究红色和灰色松鼠种群中SQPV动态中免疫和再感染的作用.
主要方法:
- 开发了结合感染特征的新流行病学模型.
- 结合模型与SQPV动态的纵向现场和实验研究.
- 在孤立的红松鼠种群中适应SQPV流行病观察的模型.
主要成果:
- 部分或减弱免疫/再感染的模型捕获了关键的现场观测.
- 红松鼠之间的SQPV传播率大约是灰松鼠之间的红松鼠之间的4倍.
- 由于疾病介导,红松鼠被灰松鼠所取代的速度被SQPV显著加快.
结论:
- 野生动物疾病中的免疫相互作用是复杂的,可以使用流行病学模型推断.
- SQPV显著提高了灰松鼠取代红松鼠的速度.
- 战略建模对于了解野生动物疾病是有价值的,即使数据有限.
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