在未来的气候情景下,公共育种对美国大米产量的积极影响
Diane R Wang1, Sajad Jamshidi1, Rongkui Han2
1Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47901.
概括
这项研究使用分子数据,品种表现和美国南部气候预测了大米产量,公众的育种努力提高了大米对未来气候挑战的抵御力.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 遗传学 是一个遗传学.
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 美国南部是主要的米生产中心,占美国产出的85%.
- 了解影响大米产量的因素对于粮食安全和农业可持续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过整合分子标记物变异,品种生产力和气候数据来建模和预测大米产量.
- 评估历史育种趋势对大米对未来气候适应力的影响.
主要方法:
- 数字化了四十年的县级品种种植面积数据 (1970-2015年) 和基因型测序数据以估计异基因频率.
- 开发了10个机器学习模型,用于使用等位基频率,天气和产量数据进行产量预测.
- 采用了两层元学习者组合模型,与统一区域大米苗圃试验 (1980-2018) 进行了验证.
主要成果:
- 合奏模型准确地预测了历史的水产量.
- 结果表明,公共育种计划对大米对未来气候的适应性产生了积极影响.
- 组合品种群组合起来,根据育种趋势预测未来的产量.
结论:
- 公共育种已经明显改善了对不断变化的气候条件的抗性.
- 该研究提供了一个框架,用于预测在各种气候情景下未来的水产量.
- 进一步的研究可以探索有助于气候适应力的特定遗传特征.
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