诊断极端温度的陷 在诊断极端温度的陷
1Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. l.brunner@univie.ac.at.
Nature communications
|March 19, 2024
概括
运行用于定义温度极端的季节性窗口引入了偏差,低估了极端事件的频率. 纠正这种偏见对于准确的气候变化影响评估至关重要,特别是对于热浪.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 人类引起的气候变化正在全球范围内加剧极端温度.
- 极端温度事件通常使用每日最高温度的百分点值来定义.
- 基于百分比的方法通常使用运行季节性窗口来解释区域和季节性变化.
研究的目的:
- 调查运行季节性窗口对温度极端计算的影响.
- 识别和量化这种方法引入的偏差.
- 提出和验证一个解决方案,以减轻所识别的偏差.
主要方法:
- 使用百分位基值计算分析温度数据.
- 与运行季节性窗口使用和不使用的极端频率估计的比较.
- 开发和应用一个纠正的方法来消除季节性循环混合.
主要成果:
- 运行季节性窗口引入了显著的偏差,导致低估极端温度事件频率.
- 这种偏差是由于人工混合平均季节周期到极端值计算的结果.
- 拟议的校正方法有效地消除了这种偏差.
- 这种偏差可以导致某些地区对未来热浪变化的估计高达30%.
结论:
- 在定义极端温度时使用未经纠正的运行季节窗口是科学上不合理的.
- 准确评估气候变化影响,特别是热浪,需要纠正极端频率计算.
- 这些发现强调了气候极端研究的方法改进的必要性.
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