在农业部门开发基于强有力的决策方法的气候变化适应途径 (案例研究:伊朗Sefidroud灌网络)
Mohsen Mehraban1, Sajad Najafi Marghmaleki2, Amin Sarang3
1School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|March 19, 2024
概括
气候变化影响水资源,威胁到农业的稳定. 转向干直接种 (D-DSR) 灌是一种强有力的适应策略,在未来的不确定性下确保水资源管理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业工程 农业工程
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 气候变化给水资源分配带来了重大不确定性,影响了农业部门的稳定性.
- 塞菲德鲁德大盆地面临着现有的水资源短缺,预计在未来的气候情景下会恶化.
- 有效的适应策略对于保持灌和排水网络的功能至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化不确定性下评估农业适应战略的有效性.
- 评估两种策略:提高灌效率 (S1) 和转向干直接种 (D-DSR) 灌 (S2).
- 使用结合遗憾和满意度指数的决策方法.
主要方法:
- 使用WEAP集成管理软件 (2006-2020) 进行了盆地建模.
- 使用RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放场景 (2021-2050) 评估了气候变化影响.
- 使用遗憾和满意度方法来评估不确定性下的战略绩效.
主要成果:
- 预计降雨量减少 (3.5-11.8%) 和温度增加 (0.83-1.62 °C).
- 塞菲德鲁德大的流入预计将减少13-28%,加剧了当前的赤字.
- 与S1.1相比,干式DSR灌 (S2) 显示了更高的满意度指数 (0.77乐观,0.67悲观).
结论:
- 干式DSR灌方法是一种强大的策略,在气候变化的不确定性中保持盆地稳定.
- 适应战略对于缓解塞菲德鲁德灌网络预计的缺水问题至关重要.
- 考虑到上游人类活动,重新分配水资源和采取实际措施是必不可少的.
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