埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴的基于网格的气候变异性分析
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Published on: June 24, 2019
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Esubalew Nebebe Mekonnen1, Aramde Fetene2, Ephrem Gebremariam1
1Computer Aided Design and Geoinformatics, EiABC, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|March 19, 2024
概括
38年来,亚的斯亚贝巴经历了显著的温度上升,十年最大温度上升了2.7°C. 这凸显了迫切需要气候适应战略,以建立对气温上升的抵御力.
科学领域:
- 气候学和环境科学 气候学和环境科学
- 地理空间分析和统计建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化不成比例地影响发展中国家,需要进行本地化影响评估.
- 埃塞俄比亚,特别是亚的斯亚贝巴,面临着越来越容易受到气候变化和变化的影响.
- 了解温度趋势对于制定有效的适应策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在埃塞俄比亚的亚的斯亚贝巴,分析38年 (1981-2018) 的温度变化和变化.
- 调查最大和最小温度趋势的空间和时间模式.
- 为该地区的气候变化适应规划提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用埃塞俄比亚国家气象局的格式气象数据 (最低和最高温度).
- 使用变化系数 (CV) 和标准化异常指数 (SAI) 进行异常分析.
- 应用地缘统计模型 (普通战争),修改的曼-肯达尔 (MMK),森的斜率 (SS) 估计器,PCA和T测试用于趋势分析.
主要成果:
- 观察到年度和季节性温度的显著空间和时间变化.
- 长期平均年温度:25.8°C (最大) 和12.6°C (最小).
- 除1月和9月以外,每个月,每年和每季气温都会显著上升. 十年最高气温上升2.7°C,平均上升1.88°C (最大) 和1.72°C (最小). 春季 (比利时) 季节记录了最高的温度. 主要组件分析表明,年度和Kiremt Tmax占温度变化的90%.
结论:
- 这项研究证实,亚的斯亚贝巴的气候变暖趋势显著,最高气温显著上升.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要实施强有力的气候适应战略和政策.
- 积极的措施对于提高城市对气候变化引起的危害的抵御能力和减轻各个部门的影响至关重要.
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