COVID-19如何影响现任官员的投票:来自法国地方选举的证据
Davide Morisi1,2, Héloïse Cloléry3, Guillaume Kon Kam King3,4
1Department of Political Science and Public Management, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
PloS one
|March 19, 2024
概括
在COVID-19疫情初期,选民奖励现任领导人,尽管领导人无法控制自然威胁. 现任官员在受灾严重的地区获得了支持,这表明恐惧和感知能力影响了投票行为.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 选民经常认为现任官员对负面事件负责.
- 自然灾害对问责制构成了挑战,因为它们往往是不可预见的.
- COVID-19大流行为研究选民行为提供了一个独特的自然威胁场景.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查选民在不断发展的自然威胁期间对现任官员的反应.
- 为了确定选民是否制裁或奖励现任官员,当面对无法控制的事件,如COVID-19大流行.
- 探索驱动选民对自然威胁反应的机制.
主要方法:
- 分析2020年法国市政选举中的选民反应.
- 利用基于过度死亡率数据的细粒度测量病毒循环.
- 检查与当地COVID-19影响有关的现任投票份额.
主要成果:
- 在受到COVID-19早期传播严重影响的地区,现有支持增加了.
- 无论是左翼还是右翼的现任总统都在受影响更严重的地区获得了更多的选票.
- 有证据表明,情绪 (恐惧) 和潜在投票 (感知能力) 道正在发挥作用.
结论:
- 选民可能会奖励,而不是惩罚,在严重的自然威胁,如流行病期间,现任官员.
- 恐惧和现任官员管理危机的感知能力可以影响选举结果.
- 现有企业在应对危机方面的表现,即使是无法控制的危机,也会影响选民的支持.
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