东欧阿尔卑斯地区的土壤湿度降水反在允许对流的气候模拟中
Heimo Truhetz1, Aditya N Mishra1
1Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC) University of Graz Graz Austria.
概括
土壤湿度显著影响东欧的降水位置,这种模式即使在气候变化下也持续存在. 深层土壤湿度的不确定性导致未来降水预测的本地偏差很大.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 水文学的水文学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 土壤湿度-降水 (SMP) 反对于理解区域气候动态至关重要.
- 在未来气候变化场景下调查这些反对于准确的气候预测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析土壤湿度对东欧阿尔卑斯山区和帕诺尼亚盆地的夏季降水的影响.
- 用伪全球变暖方法评估在本世纪末气候变化条件下SMP反的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用气候模式中小规模建模联盟 (COSMO) 区域气候模型进行对流允许的模拟 (3公里网格间距).
- 在RCP 8.5情景下,从四个全球气候模型中纳入世纪末气候变化影响.
- 应用一种新的建模框架,将假全球变暖与持续强制深层土壤水分相结合.
主要成果:
- 降水事件的位置对土壤湿度的变化非常敏感,而强度和内部结构基本上不受影响.
- 独特的时间和空间土壤水分合模式与高和低降水强度有关.
- 土壤湿度作为随后降水事件的指导场,这是独立于气候变化的行为.
结论:
- 大型市场影响力反显著影响研究区域的夏季降雨模式.
- 气候变化放大了SMP合强度,未来的降水信号显示了由深层土壤湿度不确定性 (±10%) 驱动的实质性局部偏差 (高达±40%).
- 土壤湿度的不确定性是未来气候变化信号中夏季降水的主要因素.
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