为智利建模转基因玉米进口禁令对智利的经济影响
William Foster1, Jorge Ortega2, Gonzalo Vargas3
1Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and Millennium Nucleus Center for the Integrated Development of Territories (CEDIT), Santiago, Chile.
GM crops & food
|March 20, 2024
概括
对智利进口转基因玉米的潜在禁令可能会显著提高国内价格,可能会使该国从出口转向进口动物产品. 虽然一些生产者可能会受益,但整体社会福利预计将下降.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 经济政策 经济政策
- 生物技术影响评估
背景情况:
- 智利目前生产非转基因 (非转基因) 谷物供国内使用.
- 该国是谷物净进口国,但是猪肉和家禽等动物产品的净出口国.
- 禁止进口转基因玉米可能会大大改变国内市场的动态.
研究的目的:
- 估计智利可能禁止进口转基因玉米的经济影响.
- 在各种进口情景下分析生产者和消费者余的变化.
- 评估智利经济对整体社会福利的影响.
主要方法:
- 经济建模用于估计生产者和消费者余.
- 对国内玉米价格潜在变化的分析.
- 模拟对动物产品 (猪肉和家禽) 部门的影响.
- 随着和没有进口非转基因玉米的福利变化的评估.
主要成果:
- 禁止进口转基因玉米可能会大大提高国内玉米价格.
- 智利可能从净出口国转变为动物产品的净进口国.
- 农场生产中固定因素的所有者可以看到大量的收益,而非转基因进口会减轻收益.
- 预计总体社会福利将大幅下降,这需要禁止的非经济理由.
结论:
- 如果没有非转基因进口,国内玉米价格可能会摧毁国内动物产品行业.
- 如果非转基因进口,工业和消费者将面临损失,虽然不那么严重.
- 福利损失主要与猪肉和家禽部门的经济租金有关.
- 如果允许使用转基因料进口,国际贸易可能会减轻消费者影响.
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