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从"过去-未来行动"的角度探索未来的生态系统服务变化和关键贡献因素:黄河流域的案例研究

Kaili Zhang¹, Bin Fang², Zhicheng Zhang¹

¹School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China.

The Science of the total environment

|March 20, 2024

概括

气候变化和人类活动影响黄河流域的生态系统服务 (ESs). 根据SSP1-1.9的可持续发展改善了ESs,而其他场景显示了权衡,突出了适应性战略的需要.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

气候变化和人类活动对生态系统服务 (ESs) 产生重大影响,这些服务对可持续区域发展至关重要.
了解这些影响并制定适应性战略对于有效管理自然资源至关重要.

研究的目的:

在不同的气候和土地利用情景下,预测黄河流域关键生态系统服务 (水产,碳储存,土壤保留,息地质量) 的未来变化.
分析生态系统服务之间的权衡,并确定影响这些变化的关键人为因素.
提出一种发展途径,以加强生态系统服务和减轻负面影响.

主要方法:

整合系统动力学 (SD),未来土地利用模拟 (FLUS),生态系统服务的综合估值和权衡 (InVEST) 和结构方程模型 (SEM).
利用CMIP6中的三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP):SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5,到2030年预测变化.
水产量 (WY),碳储存 (CS),土壤保留 (SR) 和息地质量 (HQ) 的量化变化.

主要成果:

场景SSP1-1.9促进生态土地恢复;SSP2-4.5显示中间土地开发;SSP5-8.5导致土地使用显著的人工化.
SSP1-1.9增强了所有ES,而SSP5-8.5和SSP2-4.5显示了WY,HQ和CS之间的权衡,特别是在下游.
在SSP5-8.5情景下,人为因素的影响更为明显.

结论:

不同的气候和土地利用场景对生态系统服务及其权衡产生不同的影响.
该研究确定了驱动未来ES变化的关键因素,为可持续发展提供了见解.
提出了一个优先发展途径,以减少ES的权衡,并提高对环境挑战的弹性.

关键词:

CMIP6 气候变化气候变化有助于因素的因素.生态系统服务 (ESS)土地使用模拟.这是一个SSP-RCP场景.

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