个人的意见如何影响社会对疫情的抵抗力:一种基于代理的模型方法
Geonsik Yu1, Michael Garee2, Mario Ventresca1,3
1School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Grant St, West Lafayette, 47907, IN, USA.
BMC public health
|March 21, 2024
概括
论显著影响传染病的传播,特别是在流行病的早期. 早期的公共合作对缓解疾病传播和保护公共健康至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 公民合作对于传染病控制至关重要,特别是在自我护理干预方面.
- 公众论在疾病传播中的作用,特别是在COVID-19大流行期间,需要进行更深入的调查.
研究的目的:
- 开发和使用基于代理的模拟框架来建模论动态对流行病传播的影响.
- 量化各种与论相关的因素对疾病传播和累计病例数的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于代理的模拟模型,将意见动态与流行病建模集成在一起.
- 该模型是使用YouGov调查数据和世界卫生组织 (WHO) 15个国家的COVID-19病例数据进行校准的.
- 模拟分析了公众论的变化如何影响流行病结果,重点关注新感染总数.
主要成果:
- 关于预防干预的最初公众意见水平是影响累积病例的最重要因素 (69.67%-96.65%的重要性).
- 媒体道使用率和响应时间显示出实质性的影响,但主要是在主流论因素的特定范围内.
- 部分依赖图说明了意见动态和疾病传播之间的复杂相互作用.
结论:
- 疫情初期的公众论对于有效的公共卫生保护至关重要.
- 疫情早期的犹使得后来的说服成本高昂;及时的公众合作至关重要.
- 媒体和当局必须提供准确的信息,以促进公众在卫生政策方面的合作.
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