模拟在阿富汗制造甲基胺所需的投入量
Bryce Pardo1, Alexandre Nobajas Ganau2, Irmgard Zeiler1
1United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Research and Trends Analysis Branch, Vienna, Austria.
Addiction (Abingdon, England)
|March 21, 2024
概括
在阿富汗制造甲基胺需要大量的以弗得或感冒药. 需要的大量量使人们对以弗得拉作为甲基胺生产的主要来源产生怀疑.
科学领域:
- 法医化学 法医化学
- 药品制造业分析 药品制造业分析
- 非法物质生产 非法物质生产
背景情况:
- 在阿富汗,甲基胺的生产和使用已经升级.
- 埃菲德拉植物越来越多地被确定为甲基胺合成中的埃菲德林来源.
- 最近的趋势表明,人们越来越依赖以弗得拉来制造非法药物.
研究的目的:
- 量化对阿富汗甲基胺生产的投入需求.
- 为了估计ephedra与感冒药物作为前体的相对效率.
- 根据最近的扣押数据,评估前体采购的规模.
主要方法:
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟来模拟前体数量.
- 从现有文献中获得关键参数的内置不确定性范围.
- 从2021年开始,将模拟结果推广到2021年的甲基胺查总数.
主要成果:
- 生产1公斤甲基胺需要平均196.8公斤的干或27.9公斤的感冒药.
- 在2021年,约有2.7公的甲基胺在阿富汗被查获.
- 这意味着处理了266478公的乙或3868公的感冒药物.
结论:
- 为了合成甲基胺,需要大量的ephedra或感冒药.
- 实质性投入要求挑战了以弗得拉作为主要前体来源的概念.
- 对阿富汗甲基胺前体采购的进一步调查是有必要的.
相关概念视频
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