评估零排放卡车驾驶竞争力的总成本
Catherine Ledna1, Matteo Muratori1, Arthur Yip1
1National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA.
iScience
|March 21, 2024
概括
到2035年,零排放汽车 (ZEV) 可以与柴油卡车的成本相匹配. 过渡到ZEV提供了显著的温室气体减排,激励加速采用.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 中型和重型车辆对美国运输的温室气体 (GHG) 排放 (21%) 和空气污染作出了重大贡献.
- 向零排放汽车 (ZEV) 的过渡对于减缓气候变化和改善交通运输部门的空气质量至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析ZEV的未来总驾驶成本 (TCD),包括电池电动汽车 (BEV) 和燃料电池电动汽车 (FCEV).
- 确定ZEV在不同市场细分领域与传统柴油车辆实现成本平价的条件.
- 预测到2050年广泛采用ZEV的潜在温室气体减排.
主要方法:
- 场景建模以预测ZEV和柴油车辆的TCD演变.
- 分析关键成本因素,包括车辆购买价格,燃料/能源成本,维护和转售价值.
- 评估技术进步和政策激励措施 (例如,通货膨胀减缓法案) 对ZEV竞争力的影响.
主要成果:
- 假设持续改进,ZEV有潜力在所有市场细分领域到2035年达到TCD平价或比柴油车辆更好.
- 对于重型长途卡车,电动汽车 (EV) 在收费成本低于0.18美元/千瓦时时时成为TCD的竞争对手,燃料电池电动汽车 (FCEV) 在成本低于5美元/千克时时时.
- 到2035年全面过渡到ZEV销售可能会导致到2050年温室气体排放量比2019年水平减少65%,即使没有额外的支持政策.
结论:
- 在未来十年内,ZEVs将成为中型和重型行业中柴油车的经济可行的替代品.
- 政策激励措施在加速采用ZEV和实现大幅减排方面发挥着重要作用.
- 调查结果强调了ZEV在短期内有很大的采用机会,这是由于经济和环境效益的改善所推动的.
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