"取代机器"或"创造就业机会":人工智能如何影响中国制造业的就业模式?
Qingqing Huo1, Jing Ruan1,2, Yan Cui3
1School of Statistics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China.
Frontiers in artificial intelligence
|March 22, 2024
概括
人工智能 (AI) 最初取代了就业位,但从长远来看会创造更多的就业位,通过取代低技能工人并提高整体就业质量来影响就业结构. 政策应侧重于技能培训和区域一体化,以利用人工智能的好处.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 劳动经济学 劳动经济学
- 技术变革 技术变革
背景情况:
- 人工智能 (AI) 是经济发展和工业转型的关键驱动力.
- 了解人工智能对就业模式的影响在复杂的全球挑战中至关重要.
- 辩论的中心是人工智能是否导致"机器替代"或"创造就业机会".
研究的目的:
- 分析人工智能对制造业就业模式的影响机制.
- 实证地研究AI对中国制造业总就业,结构和质量的影响.
- 调查人工智能对制造业就业格局的多方面的反应.
主要方法:
- 基于任务的模型分析,以了解AI的影响机制.
- 使用来自中国制造业 (2011-2020) 的省级小组数据进行实证检查.
- 对人工智能对总就业,就业结构和就业质量的影响进行分析.
主要成果:
- 人工智能发展和总就业之间存在积极的U形关系;替代效应在短期内占主导地位,而创造效应在长期内占主导地位.
- 低技能劳动力更容易被取代;金融,住宿和餐饮行业的溢出影响较小.
- 人工智能对就业质量产生了积极的影响,缩小了城乡收入差距,农村收入增长更高.
结论:
- 人工智能融入工业对就业产生双重影响,需要采取积极的战略.
- 政策建议包括加强人工智能开发,扩大就业道,并优先考虑劳动力技能培训.
- 加速区域和城乡一体化对于公平分配技术红利至关重要.
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