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Updated: Jun 30, 2025

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基钢铁制造项目的最佳投资策略与多重不确定性相结合
Shuo Xu1, Xiaoyang Wang2, Yingqi Jiang3
1Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; Institute of Urban System Engineering, Beijing Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing 100089, China.
Journal of environmental management
|March 24, 2024
概括
目前不建议投资钢制造业. 然而,如果每年降低5%的气价格,最佳投资将转移到2036年,在绿色气补贴下加快到2033年.
科学领域:
- 金工程 金工程 金工程
- 工业经济学 工业经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 钢制造对于铁钢行业脱碳至关重要.
- 由于技术,市场和政策的不确定性,目前钢制造项目的投资方法不足.
- 现有的研究往往低估了投资价值,因为它们忽略了不确定性下的选项价值.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个真正的选择模型,以在钢制造业中获得最佳的投资时间和收入.
- 分析多维不确定性 (钢铁价格,碳市场,技术) 对投资决策的影响.
- 评估补贴政策对钢制造投资战略的影响.
主要方法:
- 构建一个真实期权模型来评估投资价值和时间.
- 纳入包括价格波动和技术进步在内的多维不确定性.
- 应用最小平方蒙特卡洛方法在不确定性下进行计算分析.
主要成果:
- 当前的钢铁和价格不支持投资.
- 每年降低5%的气价格可以提前推进到2036年的最佳投资时间.
- 20%的绿色气补贴政策进一步推进了2033年的最佳投资,显著增加了投资价值.
结论:
- 实际选项建模为在不确定性下钢制造投资决策提供了强大的框架.
- 政策干预,如绿色补贴和税收激励,对于加速投资至关重要.
- 调查结果为投资者和政策制定者提供数据驱动的见解,以促进大型钢制造业的发展.
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