通过系统动态建模和多标准分析评估区域供暖系统的发展脱碳化战略.
Janis Edmunds Daugavietis1, Jelena Ziemele2
1Institute of Microbiology and Biotechnology, University of Latvia, Jelgavas Street 1, Riga, Latvia.
Journal of environmental management
|March 24, 2024
概括
这项研究使用系统动态和多标准分析建模了区域供暖 (DH) 脱碳路径. 它列出了过渡到第四代DH (4GDH) 系统的场景,指导可持续能源发展.
科学领域:
- 能源系统工程 能源系统工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 运营研究 运营研究
背景情况:
- 区域供暖 (DH) 系统面临着越来越大的脱碳压力.
- 转向可持续能源对于环境和经济可行性至关重要.
- 现有的DH模型往往缺乏综合的可持续性评估.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个混合模型,整合系统动态和多标准分析,用于DH脱碳.
- 评估各种向第四代DH (4GDH) 系统的过渡战略.
- 根据决策的可持续性指标对脱碳途径进行排名.
主要方法:
- 系统动态建模以模拟能源,经济和环境指标,直到2050年.
- 探索4GDH系统的四种脱碳战略 (再生能源,废热,热联产,联合).
- 使用TOPSIS方法评估场景可持续性的多标准分析.
主要成果:
- 基于全面的可持续性评分,建立了基于DH转型途径的排名.
- 场景与碳中和DH系统目标进行了基准测试.
- 混合模型为评估DH脱碳提供了一个定量框架.
结论:
- 混合模型有效地指导决策者选择最佳的DH脱碳化策略.
- 整合可再生能源,废热和能源效率措施是可持续4GDH的关键.
- 该研究提供了适用于现实世界DH系统开发的实用框架,里加为例.
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