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全球氨脱碳化场景的未来生命周期评估

Johanna Boyce¹, Romain Sacchi², Earl Goetheer³

¹Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Einsteinweg 55, 2333 CC, Leiden, the Netherlands.

|March 25, 2024

概括

由于供应链排放,到2050年实现完全脱碳的氨行业不太可能. 然而,雄心勃勃的气候政策可以显著减少氨产生的温室气体影响.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
气候科学气候科学

背景情况:

氨生产是全球温室气体排放的重要来源.
现有的氨生命周期评估 (LCA) 可能缺乏对前性分析的稳定性和适用性.

研究的目的:

在各种气候场景下对全球氨产量进行前性生命周期评估.
评估到2050年实现氨行业脱碳的可行性,并确定关键挑战.

主要方法:

使用IEA氨路线图和IMAGE电力场景,针对三个气候目标 (到2100年达到3.5°C,2.0°C,1.5°C的变暖).
集成的全球数据与新的生命周期库存,以提高LCA准确性.
从2020年到2050年,在26个地区模拟氨产量.

主要成果:

由于剩余供应链排放,到2050年实现完全脱碳是不可能的,即使在1.5°C的情景中也是如此.
从2020年到2050年,累计温室气体排放量 (二氧化碳相当量) 预计分别为3.5°C,2.0°C和1.5°C的场景为24,21和15千兆.
1.5°C的情景,有了强有力的政策,可以减少气候影响高达70%每公斤氨.

结论:

在氨生产中显著减少温室气体是复杂的,需要技术进步 (例如,碳捕获,甲热解).
基于电解的 (绿色) 氨提供了更清洁的途径,但取决于电力去碳化.
挑战包括减少尿素需求,管理二氧化碳运输/储存,扩大可再生能源,解决原材料短缺和现有基础设施问题.

关键词:

氨气氨气氨气是一种肥料肥料是一种肥料.国际能源署的路线图图像图像图像图像未来的LCA可能会出现一些场景,一些情景.

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