一个拟议的分析方法来估计厄瓜多尔的每日死亡率过剩
Raul Patricio Fernandez-Naranjo1, Jorge Vasconez-Gonzalez1, Juan S Izquierdo-Condoy1
1One Health Research Group, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de las Americas, Quito, Ecuador.
Frontiers in public health
|March 25, 2024
概括
厄瓜多尔经历了世界上最高的COVID-19过度死亡率. 该研究显示,死亡人数大幅增加,突显了大流行病的严重影响和病毒的快速传播,特别是在沿海地区.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19的流行病造成了广泛的死亡,厄瓜多尔正在经历一个特别严重的疫情.
- 了解疫情的影响需要准确地测量过度死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 通过分析人均和每天的过度死亡,量化COVID-19大流行对厄瓜多尔的影响.
- 为了比较厄瓜多尔的死亡率与其他严重受影响的国家.
主要方法:
- 一项生态研究分析了厄瓜多尔的全因死亡数据.
- 与2017-2019年平均水平相比,开发一个引导方法来估计过度死亡.
- 普森匹配分析以确定所有原因和COVID-19死亡的趋势.
主要成果:
- 厄瓜多尔在2020年报告了115,070人死亡,其中42,453人被归类为过度死亡率.
- 厄瓜多尔在最短的时间内记录了全球最高的过度死亡率.
- 单一天有1,120人死亡,比预期的死亡人数增加了408%.
结论:
- 在调整人口规模和时间时,厄瓜多尔是COVID-19最受影响的国家.
- 死亡率过高表明SARS-CoV-2迅速传播,特别是在厄瓜多尔的沿海地区.
- 该研究的方法可以帮助评估流行病早期的死亡率.
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