模拟人类行为的影响,使用两层瓦茨-斯特罗格茨网络来传输和控制Mpox
Qiaojuan Jia1, Ling Xue2, Ran Sui1
1College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, 145 Nantong Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China.
BMC infectious diseases
|March 27, 2024
概括
控制高风险群体的Mopox传播可以增加低风险群体的传播. 将性接触减少到每周两次,可以有效制Mpox的传播,这有助于公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 网络科学 网络科学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 马博克斯疫情对公众健康构成重大挑战.
- 了解传输动态对于有效控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估Mopox缓解策略的有效性.
- 分析人类行为对Mopox传播的影响.
- 在刚果民主共和国指导公共卫生当局预防和控制mpox.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种两层瓦茨-斯特罗格茨网络模型.
- 使用下一代矩阵方法计算了基本的复制数.
- 利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 进行模型拟合和数值模拟来评估干预.
主要成果:
- 控制高风险群体的传播可能会增加低风险群体的传播率.
- 高风险群体的接触传播率在2022年5月18日之后下降了大约20%.
- 基本生殖数量估计为2.3475,与接触异质性正相关;将性接触减少到每周两次,将其降至不到1.
结论:
- 需要保持警,以防Mpox在疫情爆发后的低风险群体中可能再次出现.
- 将平均性接触减少到每周两次是减缓Mpox传播的可行策略.
- 调查结果为刚果民主共和国的Mpox缓解提供了可操作的见解.
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