在中国老年人中确定未来认知障碍的预测性风险因素:纵向预测研究
Collin Sakal1, Tingyou Li1, Juan Li2
1School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
JMIR aging
|March 27, 2024
概括
人口统计,认知测试和日常生活中的工具活动最能预测中国老年人的认知障碍. 然而,预测的准确性因社会经济群体而异,需要对所有人群进行更好的风险评估.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 认知障碍在中国构成了重大的社会负担,推动了对有效的临床预测模型的需求.
- 现有模型在不同社会经济群体和亚群体的准确性仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 确定用于预测中国老年人认知障碍的关键健康信息领域.
- 检查不同的人口和社会经济学子集在预测准确性的差异.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国长度健康长寿调查 (CLHLS) 的数据.
- 各种因素 (人口统计,ADL,认知测试等) 的量化预测能力. 和现有模型使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 通过交叉验证.
- 在一般,男性,女性,农村,城市,受过教育和未受过教育的老年人中分析了预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 人口统计学 (AUC 0.78),认知测试 (AUC 0.72) 和日常生活的工具活动 (ADLs) (AUC 0.71) 是一般人群中最强的预测因素.
- 预测模型显示,与男性和受过教育的人相比,女性和没有正规教育的人的预测准确度明显更高.
- 现有的模型和关键风险因素表明,男性,城市居民和受过教育的老年人的预测能力较低.
结论:
- 人口统计,认知测试和仪器ADL对于预测中国老年人认知障碍至关重要.
- 在性别,教育和潜在的城市/农村划分方面,预测准确度存在显著差异.
- 进一步的研究和模型改进至关重要,以确保对中国所有社会经济群体进行公平的风险评估.
关键词:
中国中国中国中国.在MCI中,MCI是MCI.年龄化的衰老.衰老的衰老 衰老的衰老认知 认知 认知有关认知性的认知.认知障碍是一种认知障碍.人口统计学 人口统计学人口统计数据 人口统计数据年长的年长的年长的年长的年长年长的老人老年人老年人.老年人的医疗服务老年病的治疗方法老年病学 老年病学是一门学科.机器学习是机器学习.轻度的认知障碍 轻度的认知障碍模型模型模型模型模型模型模型 模型 模型 模型年长的成年人.年龄较大的成年人.老年人年长的人.老年人是一个老人.人口人口人口的人口人口.预测 预测 预测 预测预测 预测 预测 预测预测 预测 预测 预测预测器 预测器 预测器预测者 预测者 预测者危险的风险 危险的风险有风险的风险是有风险的风险.一个可变的变量.变量变量变量的变量变量.相关概念视频
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