使用整体物种分布模型预测常见抗生素耐药和抗生素相关病原体的增加发病率
Siqi C Brough1,2, Luke Caddell2, Raymond J Liou2,3
1Department of Surgery, Inova Fairfax Medical Campus, Falls Church, Virginia, USA.
The Journal of infectious diseases
|March 27, 2024
概括
温度和湿度等环境因素显著预测抗生素耐药性感染,如甲素耐药黄金葡萄球菌 (MRSA) 和Clostridioides difficile. 这凸显了需要气候信息化的疾病监测的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
- 计算生物学是一种计算生物学.
背景情况:
- 每年在美国,与抗生素相关的病原体会导致数百万例感染和数千例死亡.
- 了解环境决定因素对于预测传染病传播至关重要,尤其是在全球变化的背景下.
研究的目的:
- 应用物种分布建模,以确定影响甲素耐药黄金葡萄球菌 (MRSA) 和Clostridioides difficile (C. diff) 存在的环境因素.
- 评估生物气候,医疗保健和社会人口学变量对这些抗生素耐药性感染的预测能力.
主要方法:
- 使用了31个生物气候,医疗保健和社会人口统计变量的物种分布建模.
- 从8个统计和机器学习算法开发了整体模型.
- 分析了305,528个MRSA和203,001个C. diff诊断,使用国际疾病分类,第10版代码.
主要成果:
- 平均最高温度,特定湿度和农田密度被确定为MRSA和C. diff存在的关键预测指标.
- 环境因素比医疗保健可用性变量具有更大的预测重要性.
- 物种分布建模有效地确定了这些感染风险增加的地区.
结论:
- 环境决定因素在主要抗生素耐药性病原体的分布中发挥着重要作用.
- 种类分布建模是加强疾病监测和风险识别的宝贵工具.
- 这些发现对公共卫生战略有影响,即在不断变化的环境中管理传染病.
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