在西点军校学员中,成功的军事生涯的早期预测者是西点军校学员
Everett S Spain1, Eric Lin1, Lissa V Young1
1Department of Behavioral Sciences and Leadership, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York.
概括
学员军人平均成绩比认知能力更强烈地预测未来的领导力成功. 这一发现有助于组织更有效地识别领导力发展的高潜力人才.
科学领域:
- 组织心理学 组织心理学
- 领导力研究 领导力研究
- 军事科学 军事科学
背景情况:
- 识别高潜力的领导者对于组织的成功至关重要.
- 现有研究经常强调一般心理能力是表现的关键预测因素.
- 早期的人才识别优化了发展资源的分配.
研究的目的:
- 评估学员军人平均成绩 (GPA) 与认知能力和学业表现等传统预测指标的预测有效性.
- 确定学员GPA在预测军事职业生涯的职业成果方面的长期有效性.
- 确定在军事背景下选择未来领导人最准确的指标.
主要方法:
- 在13个班级的5505名西点毕业生数据集上进行了回归分析.
- 该研究的重点是留在陆军并被考虑提升为少校的个人.
- 预测准确性被评估为包括早期晋升和营司令部选择在内的结果.
主要成果:
- 在预测未来的职业成果方面,学员军人GPA显著超过了认知能力和学术表现.
- 学员军人GPA的预测优势持续了16年.
- 军事GPA在识别关键领导职位的候选人方面表现出卓越的有效性,例如营司令.
结论:
- 学员军人GPA是军队长期领导成功的更强有力的预测指标,而不是一般的心理能力或学术成绩.
- 这些发现对领导力发展计划和人才管理策略有重大影响.
- 该研究强调了军事特定绩效指标在识别高潜力领导者的重要性.
相关概念视频
Reliability and Validity
Reliability and validity are two important considerations that must be made with any type of data collection. Reliability refers to the ability to consistently produce a given result. In the context of psychological research, this would mean that any instruments or tools used to collect data do so in consistent, reproducible ways.
Hindsight Biases
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
Cognitive Dissonance
Social psychologists have documented that feeling good about ourselves and maintaining positive self-esteem is a powerful motivator of human behavior (Tavris & Aronson, 2008). In the United States, members of the predominant culture typically think very highly of themselves and view themselves as good people who are above average on many desirable traits (Ehrlinger, Gilovich, & Ross, 2005). Often, our behavior, attitudes, and beliefs are affected when we experience a threat to our...
Stereotype Threat and Self-fulfilling Prophecies
When we hold a stereotype about a person, we have expectations that he or she will fulfill that stereotype. A self-fulfilling prophecy is an expectation held by a person that alters his or her behavior in a way that tends to make it true. When we hold stereotypes about a person, we tend to treat the person according to our expectations. This treatment can influence the person to act according to our stereotypic expectations, thus confirming our stereotypic beliefs. Research by Rosenthal and...
Outliers and Influential Points
An outlier is an observation of data that does not fit the rest of the data. It is sometimes called an extreme value. When you graph an outlier, it will appear not to fit the pattern of the graph. Some outliers are due to mistakes (for example, writing down 50 instead of 500), while others may indicate that something unusual is happening. Outliers are present far from the least squares line in the vertical direction. They have large "errors," where the "error" or residual is the vertical...
Survival Tree
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a survival tree begins...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a survival tree begins...
