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通过整合断层树分析和贝叶斯网络建模方法来评估盆地间转水计划的风险
Abbas Roozbahani1, Tahereh Ghanian2
1Faculty of Science and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Ås, Norway.
Journal of environmental management
|March 27, 2024
概括
盆地间转水项目需要进行风险评估. 使用断层树分析 (FTA) 和贝叶斯网络 (BN) 的综合方法确定了伊朗的关键风险和优越的水转移场景.
科学领域:
- 水资源管理水资源的管理.
- 风险评估方法 风险评估方法
- 环境工程环境工程
背景情况:
- 盆地间转水项目对于平衡区域水资源,特别是饮用水供应至关重要.
- 评估这些项目的潜在失败风险对于成功实施至关重要.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉水转移风险分析所涉及的复杂性和不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 检查盆地间转水项目的潜在失败风险.
- 探索将断层树分析 (FTA) 模型转换为贝叶斯网络 (BN) 模型.
- 应用一种综合方法来评估伊朗特定的水转移场景的风险.
主要方法:
- 使用断层树分析 (FTA) 和模糊断层树分析 (FFTA) 来确定故障因素.
- 断层树模型被转换为清晰模糊的贝叶斯网络 (BN) 模型.
- 结合FTA和BN的综合方法被用于风险分析和场景评估.
- 分析了社会政治,环境,水资源,经济和技术标准的十个基本事件.
主要成果:
- 该研究确定了从大卡鲁恩盆地到伊朗中部高原的优越水转移场景.
- 从贝赫什特-阿巴德盆地到伊斯法罕,从赫尔桑盆地到克尔曼/雅兹德的水输送显示出较低的故障风险 (0.649和0.601).
- 考虑到基本事件之间的相关性,风险增加到0.811 () 和0.789 (模糊).
结论:
- 一个集成的FTA-BN方法有效地评估了盆地间的水转移项目风险.
- 该方法有助于决策者选择最佳和较低风险的水转移策略.
- 了解基本事件贡献和相关性对于全面的风险管理至关重要.
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