免疫力学如何塑造多季流行病:在一维抗原空间中的连续离散模型
M G Roberts1, R I Hickson2,3,4, J M McCaw4,5
1New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study and the Infectious Disease Research Centre, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand. m.g.roberts@massey.ac.nz.
Journal of mathematical biology
|March 28, 2024
概括
流感类感染的数学建模显示,宿主免疫力学显著影响流行病的可预测性. 根据上次感染以来的时间,免疫力下降可能导致复杂,不可预测的流行病学模式.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 病毒学 病毒学
背景情况:
- 类似流感的感染对公众健康构成重大挑战.
- 了解传染病的动态对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
- 之前的模型已经探索了流感传播,但需要在免疫力和病毒进化方面进行进一步的细化.
研究的目的:
- 扩展流感类感染动态的数学模型.
- 调查收购免疫力减弱和抗原漂移对疾病模式的影响.
- 在不同的免疫场景下分析长期行为.
主要方法:
- 利用以前发表的数学模型.
- 嵌入式减弱免疫力和间歇性抗原漂移.
- 在季节内使用合积分方程和季节之间的离散地图.
- 检查了免疫力取决于自上次感染或感染次数以来的时间的情景.
主要成果:
- 根据上次感染以来的时间,免疫力下降导致了复杂的动态和多个吸引因素.
- 基于感染数量的免疫力导致了一个稳定的固定点,可预测的季节性流行病.
- 结合两种免疫模式,主要产生稳定的固定点或周期性解决方案.
- 随机扰动并没有从根本上改变模型的定性动态.
结论:
- 主体免疫持续时间显著影响流感类流行病的可预测性.
- 时间依赖的免疫力下降可以引入复杂和潜在的不可预测的流行病学动态.
- 数学建模为免疫,病毒漂移和疾病传播模式的相互作用提供了宝贵的见解.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
126
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
126
Cross-reactivity
31.1K
Overview
31.1K
B Cell Activation and Differentiation
1.7K
The adaptive immune response, a sophisticated defense mechanism, relies on the activation and differentiation of B lymphocytes, or B cells. These processes enable our bodies to mount a tailored response against specific pathogens such as bacteria, free virus particles, toxins, and parasites.
When naive B cells encounter a specific antigen that can bind to the B cell receptor (BCR) on their surface, they undergo sensitization to respond to the antigen's presence. Sensitization begins with...
When naive B cells encounter a specific antigen that can bind to the B cell receptor (BCR) on their surface, they undergo sensitization to respond to the antigen's presence. Sensitization begins with...
1.7K
Antigens Involved in Adaptive Immunity
489
An antigen is any substance the immune system identifies as foreign and potentially harmful to the body, prompting an immune response. Antigens have two functional properties: immunogenicity and reactivity. Immunogenicity is the ability of an antigen to stimulate a specific immune response. At the same time, reactivity describes the antigen's ability to react with the cells and antibodies produced in response to it.
Complete Antigens
Complete antigens possess both immunogenicity and...
Complete Antigens
Complete antigens possess both immunogenicity and...
489


