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COVID-19对抗措施对E型肝炎发病率模式的附带影响:基于时间序列模型的中国案例研究
Yajun Qin1, Haiyang Peng1, Jinhao Li1
1Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The Second Hospital Affiliated to Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, P.R. China.
BMC infectious diseases
|March 28, 2024
概括
COVID-19大流行暂时改变了中国的E型肝炎发病率模式,导致严重下降. 时间序列模型揭示了对策的暂时效应,预计发病率将恢复到大流行前的水平.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
- 公共卫生干预 公共卫生干预
背景情况:
- 关于COVID-19对E型肝炎发病率的影响的研究有限.
- 了解这些影响对于公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估COVID-19对抗措施对中国的E型肝炎发病率模式的影响.
- 探索时间序列模型对分析这些流行病学转变的有用性.
主要方法:
- 时间序列模型使用来自中国 (2013-2018) 的E型肝炎发病率数据进行了调整.
- 在COVID-19爆发之前,模型被评估为适合性和预测准确性.
- 从COVID-19前模型的预测与实际的COVID-19后发病率数据进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 在COVID-19前,中国的E型肝炎发病率呈现出静止和季节性模式,在3月达到峰值.
- 后COVID-19预测在某些时期与实际数据有很大差异,但在其他时期与实际数据保持一致.
- 在大流行期间观察到肝炎E发病率大幅下降.
结论:
- 由于COVID-19的应对措施导致了肝炎E发病率模式的显著,尽管是暂时的变化.
- 预计E型肝炎的发病率将逐渐恢复到大流行前的趋势.
- 时间序列分析在评估公共卫生干预措施对传染病模式的影响方面被证明是有价值的.
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