基于PLS-SEM模型的中国玉米价格形成机制研究
1School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China.
Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
|March 28, 2024
概括
中国的玉米价格在2016年之后变得更加波动. 需求因素对玉米价格的影响最为显著,受供应,货币供应和替代品价格的影响,国际因素发挥了间接作用.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 市场分析市场分析
背景情况:
- 2016年后,中国玉米市场恢复了监管,导致价格波动增加.
- 2016年取消临时玉米储存制度标志着向市场价格调整的转变.
研究的目的:
- 分析2016年4月至2023年3月中国玉米价格波动的主要驱动因素.
- 确定供应,需求,货币供应,替代价格和国际因素对玉米价格的直接和间接影响.
主要方法:
- 使用的月度数据涵盖2016年4月至2023年3月.
- 使用的部分最小平方结构方程建模 (PLS-SEM) 进行综合分析.
主要成果:
- 玉米供需因素是最直接影响价格的因素,需求表现最强的影响.
- 货币供给和替代价格通过需求方面间接影响玉米价格.
- 国际能源和玉米价格通过国际玉米价格传播间接影响中国玉米价格.
结论:
- 调节玉米供需对于稳定市场价格至关重要.
- 建议加强对国际能源和玉米价格的监测,以及谨慎的货币供应管理.
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