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自然灾害,森林砍伐和排放影响索马里经济增长
Abdimalik Ali Warsame1, Jama Mohamed2, Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie3
1Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia.
Heliyon
|March 28, 2024
概括
自然灾害和森林砍伐损害了索马里的经济增长,而温室气体排放则促进了经济增长. 政策改革对于可持续发展和环境保护至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 索马里面临着影响其经济的重大环境挑战.
- 之前的研究还没有充分探讨索马里环境因素和经济增长之间的复杂相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查自然灾害,森林砍伐和温室气体排放对索马里1990-2018年经济增长的影响.
- 采用先进的经济计量技术来分析经济数据中的时间变化的因果关系和爆炸性行为.
主要方法:
- 核心规范最小平方 (KRLS)
- 强大的格兰杰因果关系测试.
- 顶部右尾增强的迪基-富勒单元根测试
- 年度时间序列数据 (1990-2018) 的分析.
主要成果:
- 自然灾害和森林砍伐对经济增长产生负面影响,边际影响逐渐减少.
- 温室气体排放对经济增长产生积极影响,显示出越来越多的边际效应.
- 在经济增长,外国直接投资,资本形成和人口密度方面发现了爆炸性行为.
- 在变量中观察到时间变化的格兰杰因果关系.
结论:
- 环境退化对索马里经济繁荣构成重大威胁.
- 政策干预应侧重于应对灾害的准备,制森林砍伐和向清洁能源过渡.
- 应对气候变化和促进可持续实践对于索马里长期经济增长至关重要.
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