收入,教育和其他与贫困相关的变量:穿越贝叶斯层次模型的旅程
Irving Gómez-Méndez1, Chainarong Amornbunchornvej1
1National Electronics and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC), Thailand.
Heliyon
|March 28, 2024
概括
贝叶斯层次模型为贫困分析提供了灵活的方法,优于单一或定制政策. 教育在泰国所有地区显著提高了家庭收入,可能会调解区域收入差异.
科学领域:
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
背景情况:
- 减轻贫困需要量身定制的政策,但一刀切的方法是无效的.
- 区域特定政策面临资源限制,忽视区域间的依赖关系.
研究的目的:
- 应用贝叶斯层次模型来分析泰国的与贫困相关的变量.
- 为了比较贝叶斯层次模型与完全聚合和没有聚合方法的性能.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯层次模型的开发和评估,其复杂性越来越高.
- 纳入家庭收入,教育水平和区域数据等变量.
- 基于变量解释和模型复杂性的性能评估.
主要成果:
- 与完全聚合和没有聚合相比,贝叶斯层次模型显示出更高的性能.
- 纳入多年的教育显著增强了模型的解释能力.
- 在所有地区,高等教育水平与家庭收入增加有很强的相关性.
结论:
- 贝叶斯等级模型为理解区域贫困动态提供了一个强大的框架.
- 教育起着至关重要的作用,可能调解区域对家庭收入的影响.
- 这种方法为泰国和其他国家的政策设计提供了宝贵的见解.
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