根据可持续发展目标3.9,大幅减少全球PM2.5相关死亡需要更好的空气污染控制和医疗保健
Huanbi Yue1,2,3, Chunyang He4,5,6,7, Qingxu Huang1,3
1Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|March 29, 2024
概括
实现联合国的目标
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- 联合国可持续发展目标 (SDG) 3.9的目标是大幅减少因细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 污染而导致的死亡.
- 由于环境,社会经济和医疗保健因素之间的相互作用,预测未来可归因于PM2.5污染 (DAPP) 的死亡是复杂的.
- 现有的DAPP预测显示了显著的变化,影响了实现SDG 3.9.9的可行性.
研究的目的:
- 考虑多个驱动因素来预测全球DAPP趋势.
- 评估在各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下实现可持续发展目标3.9的可能性.
- 评估PM2.5度和人口因素对DAPP的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了场景模型对比项目 (ScenarioMIP) 框架,模拟了来自11个模型的PM2.5度.
- 纳入PM2.5度的联合影响,疾病死亡率,人口规模和年龄结构.
- 在不同的SSP场景 (例如SSP1-2.6) 中分析了DAPP预测.
主要成果:
- 在大多数预测情景下,DAPP的大幅减少不太可能.
- 即使是乐观的可持续性场景 (SSP1-2.6) 也只显示了19%的DAPP减少,远低于SDG 3.9目标 (≥20%).
- 未来的DAPP受污染水平,人口动态和医疗保健系统能力的相互作用的影响.
结论:
- 到2030年实现可持续发展目标3.9需要采取更积极的空气污染控制措施.
- 加强医疗保健干预措施对于进一步减少DAPP至关重要.
- 解决污染和人口健康问题的综合战略是实现全球空气质量目标所必需的.
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