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在重症监护中预后模型的外部验证:来自COVID-19肺炎的警告故事
Sebastian Bate1,2, Victoria Stokes3, Hannah Greenlee3
1Research & Innovation, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Critical care explorations
|March 29, 2024
概括
对COVID-19结果的临床预测模型在外部验证时表现不佳. 大多数模型都无法准确预测重症监护室患者的侵入性通风或死亡,这表明普遍性有限.
科学领域:
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 临床预测模型 (CPM) 对于管理COVID-19患者至关重要.
- 外部验证对于评估CPM的通用性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过外部验证临床预测模型,预测COVID-19肺炎的ICU患者的侵入性通风或死亡.
- 评估现有的COVID-19预测模型的现实世界性能.
主要方法:
- 单中心回顾性外部验证研究,使用常规收集的ICU电子病例记录.
- 确定了13篇临床预测文章,并在302名COVID-19ICU患者的队列上测试了他们的模型.
- 数据包括2020年3月至2022年2月期间入院的患者,以及德克萨米他治疗采用前的子集.
主要成果:
- 在验证队列中,只有一个模型保留了其区分能力 (C统计值0.672-0.686).
- 与之前的出版物相比,三个模型的性能 (C-统计数据0.483-0.605) 显著降低.
- 信息不足或非常规预测因素阻碍了分别对5个和3个模型的验证.
结论:
- 发布的COVID-19预测模型的性能可能无法在不同的机构中复制.
- 临床密集治疗师应该批判性地评估CPM在临床决策中的作用.
- 需要进一步的研究来开发强大的和可通用的COVID-19预测模型.
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