巴基斯坦货币供应量与通货膨胀之间的关系
Tasos Stylianou1, Rakia Nasir2, Muhammad Waqas3
1Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece.
PloS one
|March 29, 2024
概括
这项研究发现,增加的货币供应和利率对巴基斯坦的通货膨胀产生了积极的影响,而失业则产生了负面影响. 有效控制通胀需要协调货币和财政政策.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 货币政策 货币政策 货币政策
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 通货膨胀动态和货币政策对于发展中国家的经济稳定至关重要.
- 了解货币供应和通货膨胀之间的关系对于有效的经济管理至关重要.
- 巴基斯坦经济面临着与通货膨胀和货币政策有效性相关的持续挑战.
研究的目的:
- 调查巴基斯坦货币供应和通货膨胀之间的短期和长期关系.
- 评估货币政策,特别是货币供应对通胀动态的影响.
- 分析失业率和利率对通货膨胀的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用巴基斯坦1981年至2021年的年度时间序列数据.
- 采用自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 边界测试方法.
- 分析了通货膨胀,货币供应,失业率和利率之间的共同整合,考虑混合整合订单.
主要成果:
- 证实了通货膨胀,货币供应,失业率和利率之间的短期和长期共同整合.
- 发现货币供应量与通货膨胀之间存在正相关性.
- 观察到利率与通货膨胀之间存在正相关性,失业率与通货膨胀之间存在负相关性.
结论:
- 货币供应和利率是巴基斯坦通货膨胀的重要驱动因素.
- 失业对通货膨胀有抑制作用.
- 有效的通货膨胀管理需要协调货币和财政政策,可能通过专门的政策机构和机构间合作.
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