开发一个风险评分来预测在住院患者戒烟干预后的短期吸烟复发
Hwang Sik Shin1,2, Yoon Hyung Park2,3, Sung Soo Lee2,3
1Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Cheonan Hospital, Soonchunhyang University, Cheonan-si, Republic of Korea.
Asia-Pacific journal of public health
|March 30, 2024
概括
一项为期6个月的研究发现,风险评分有效地预测了韩国成年人在5天戒烟计划后复发的吸烟情况. 这种工具有助于识别患复发风险较高的人.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 行为科学 行为科学
- 临床医学 临床医学
背景情况:
- 在戒烟计划中,吸烟复发仍然是一个重大挑战.
- 预测模型对于识别高风险个体和定制干预措施至关重要.
- 韩国的全国戒烟计划旨在减少吸烟的流行.
研究的目的:
- 调查影响吸烟复发的因素.
- 开发和验证吸烟复发的预测模型.
- 评估风险评分在预测5天计划后复发的有效性.
主要方法:
- 一组518名韩国吸烟者参加了为期5天的住院戒烟计划,经过6个月的跟踪.
- 使用多变量逻辑回归模型来确定复发的风险因素.
- 开发了一个预测后勤模型和风险评分,并使用接收器运行特征曲线 (AUC) 下的面积进行比较.
主要成果:
- 在6个月内吸烟复发率为38.4%.
- 预测后勤模型和风险评分模型显示了类似的预测性能 (AUCs是可比的).
- 风险评分模型在开发和验证数据集之间显示一致的性能 (OR = 0.68).
结论:
- 基于六个已识别的风险因素的风险评分可以有效预测吸烟复发.
- 开发的风险评分是识别高复发风险的参与者的宝贵工具.
- 这一发现支持在个性化戒烟干预中使用基于风险的分层.
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