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预测气候变化下的印度 (Manis crassicaudata) 的当前和未来息地
Siddiqa Qasim1, Tariq Mahmood2, Bushra Allah Rakha2
1Department of Zoology, Wildlife and Fisheries, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. siddiqaqasim@outlook.com.
Scientific reports
|March 30, 2024
概括
气候变化严重威胁到巴基斯坦的印度松鼠息地,预计到2100年将出现大量息地丧失. 保护战略对于保护这种物种免受气候驱动的生物多样性丧失至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 气候变化是生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素,影响全球众多物种.
- 印度 (Manis crassicaudata) 是一个脆弱的物种,面临着与息地相关的威胁.
- 了解气候变化下的息地动态对于有效的保护规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计目前印度在巴基斯坦的适合息地.
- 在各种气候变化场景下预测印度的未来分布范围.
- 为巴基斯坦的印度松鼠提供保护策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 通过洞穴计数,摄像头陷和文献审查 (2021-2023) 收集了发生记录.
- 使用了WorldClim (HadGEM3-GC31-LL) 对当前和未来时期的生物气候数据.
- MaxEnt软件模拟了当前和未来的息地适合性,计算了息地丧失,增加和稳定性.
主要成果:
- 模型准确度很高 (AUC=0.885,TSS=0.695),温度变量是最有影响的.
- 目前非常适合的息地为2.2% (7270平方公里),在未来的情景下,预计西部和中部地区的数量将大幅减少.
- 据预测,在SSP585 (26.97%) 和SSP126 (23.67%) 期间,在2061-2080年间,息地损失将在SSP585 (26.97%) 和SSP126 (23.67%) 期间达到最高水平,而息地增加将小于损失.
结论:
- 气候变化对巴基斯坦的印度松鼠息地构成重大威胁,预计会造成大量损失.
- 保护规划必须考虑适合息地的预测转移,以确保物种的生存.
- 该研究为决策者提供了关键数据,以制定针对印度的有针对性的保护战略.
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