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预测死亡负担归因于中国高空间分辨率的非最佳温度
Peng Yin1, Cheng He2,3, Renjie Chen2
1National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
Environmental science & technology
|April 1, 2024
概括
中国未来的变暖将增加与热有关的死亡人数,超过与寒冷有关的死亡人数减少. 这凸显了迫切需要采取气候变化适应战略,以减轻健康风险.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对公众健康构成重大风险,需要进行本地风险评估.
- 了解与温度相关的死亡率对于制定有效的公共卫生干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计中国的非最佳温度所造成的当前和未来的死亡负担.
- 在不同的气候场景下,预测未来变暖对与热和寒有关的死亡的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用高分辨率气候模拟 (25公里) 和来自306个中国城市的全国死亡数据.
- 估计了由于非最佳温度而导致的死亡的历史 (1986-2014) 和预计的未来可归因的部分.
- 分析了2090年代在三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 下的死亡趋势.
主要成果:
- 从历史上看,15.5%的死亡与非最佳温度有关 (4.1%的热量,11.4%的寒冷).
- 预计未来因热而导致的死亡率将大幅增加,到2090年代将达到6.5%至11.4%,具体取决于情景.
- 增加的热死亡率可能会超过降低的寒冷死亡率,中国北部面临着不成比例的负担,心血管死亡人数比呼吸道死亡人数更多.
结论:
- 该研究强调,由于气候变化导致的与热有关的死亡率上升将超过中国与寒冷有关的死亡人数的减少.
- 调查结果为决策者提供了关键数据,以实施针对性适应策略来应对全球变暖引起的健康风险.
- 需要采取紧急行动,以应对中国气候变化带来的日益严重的公共卫生挑战.
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