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在气候变化背景下,旋风贾斯珀的降雨
1Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
概括
热带气旋贾斯珀给昆士兰州带来了创纪录的降雨. 气候变化正在增加这种极端降雨事件的可能性,强的旋风和潮湿的大气是主要的驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 热带气旋贾斯珀于2023年12月在昆士兰州北部造成严重洪水.
- 创纪录的降雨总量超过1-2米,表明贾斯珀可能是澳大利亚最潮湿的热带气旋.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计风贾斯珀等级的降雨事件的概率.
- 预测这种概率在未来气候变暖下将如何演变.
主要方法:
- 一种先进的热带气旋缩小技术应用于九个全球气候模型.
- 为了过去和未来的气候场景,产生了27000个合成热带气旋.
主要成果:
- 凯恩斯的热带气旋每年降雨1米的概率预计将从0.8% (20世纪末) 增加到2.3% (21世纪末).
- 据估计,目前每年发生贾斯珀式降雨的概率为1.2%,自2000年以来增加了50%.
- 降雨量增加的原因是强的旋风和较潮湿的大气.
结论:
- 气候变暖显著增加了热带气旋极端降雨事件的可能性.
- 考虑到这些气候变化影响,为未来的极端天气事件做好准备至关重要.
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