改进了南亚季风降雨的季后预测,使用数据驱动的振荡模式预测
Eviatar Bach1,2, V Krishnamurthy3, Safa Mote4,5
1Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125.
概括
这项研究通过将大气模型与数据驱动的季风季内振荡 (MISO) 预测相结合,改善了南亚季风降雨预测. 这种方法提高了在关键的10-30天延长范围内的降雨预测技能.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确预测南亚季风降雨对于农业和水资源管理至关重要.
- 季风季内振荡 (MISO) 显著影响区域降雨模式,但传统模型对其的预测很差.
- 现有的数据驱动方法仅预测与MISO相关的降雨量,而不是完整的信号.
研究的目的:
- 为了改善南亚季风的延长范围降雨预报.
- 提高季风季内振荡 (MISO) 和它们对降雨的影响的预测.
- 为了弥合10-30天扩展预测范围中的可预测性差距.
主要方法:
- 结合高分辨率大气模型组合降水预测与数据驱动的MISO预测.
- 预测大气模型组合成员在MISO动态子空间上.
- 根据其与数据驱动的MISO预测相近的权重组合成员.
主要成果:
- 在印度和更广泛的季风地区的降雨预报中取得了显著的改善.
- 在10-30天的预测时间内,降雨预测的增强时间相关性高达0.28.
- 在以前具有挑战性的可预测性差距中表现出改进的预测技能.
结论:
- 利用MISO可预测性可以大大改善长距离季风降雨预报.
- 结合动态和数据驱动的方法,为地球系统预测提供了一个有希望的未来.
- 混合方法提高了季风降雨预测的准确性,使气候敏感部门受益.
更多相关视频
10:46A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
10.7K
12:26Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling SAHM
Published on: October 11, 2016
13.3K
相关概念视频
01:17Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.8K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.8K
01:12Precipitation Processes
446
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
446
01:03Prediction Intervals
2.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.3K
01:03Precipitation Gravimetry
6.3K
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
6.3K
02:41Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.7K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.7K
01:16What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K