对酒吧/酒馆关门时间和暴力犯罪的中断时间序列分析
Erika M Rosen1, Pamela J Trangenstein1, Patrick L Fullem2
1Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, California.
JAMA internal medicine
|April 1, 2024
概括
在巴尔的摩减少酒精销售时间与暴力犯罪持续下降有关. 这项政策,马里兰州参议院法案571 (SB571),为加强社区安全提供了一个模型.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 城市研究 城市研究
背景情况:
- 众所周知,酒精销售点吸引了犯罪,特别是在深夜.
- 了解酒精销售政策对犯罪的影响对于公共安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估马里兰州参议院法案571 (SB571) 与巴尔的摩社区暴力犯罪率之间的关联,该法案减少了酒精销售时间.
- 确定政策变化是否局部化减少暴力犯罪.
主要方法:
- 在巴尔的摩进行了受控的中断时间序列分析.
- 在SB571实施之前和之后,与酒吧/酒馆周围的暴力犯罪密度进行比较 (2018年5月至2022年12月).
- 使用Poisson回归与过度分散调整,比较治疗和控制社区.
主要成果:
- 在SB571实施后的一个月内,暴力犯罪密度没有立即变化.
- 与对照组相比,在治疗社区观察到暴力犯罪密度每年下降23%的统计学意义 (IRR,0.77;P=.04).
- 在杀人和袭击方面也出现了类似的减少,在敏感性分析中发现了强有力的结果.
结论:
- 减少酒精销售时间的政策可能与暴力犯罪的减少有关.
- 通过酒精政策,SB571向其他城市展示了旨在改善社区安全的潜在模式.
- 证据支持限制酒精销售时间在缓解城市犯罪方面的有效性.
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