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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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深海浮动海上风电项目的风险评估基于犹不决的模糊的语言术语,考虑到专家之间的信任关系
Qinghua Mao1, Yaqing Gao2, Jiacheng Fan1
1School of Economics and Management, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao, 066004, China.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|April 1, 2024
概括
深海浮动海上风电 (FOWP) 项目面临的整体风险中等. 本研究为识别和管理这些风险提供了一个框架,以确保成功开发.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源工程可再生能源工程
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 海洋工程 海洋工程
背景情况:
- 深海浮动海上风电 (FOWP) 对于利用海洋风力资源至关重要.
- 早期风险识别对于FOWP项目的成功部署至关重要.
- 现有的风险评估方法可能无法完全捕捉到深海环境的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个全面的框架,用于识别和评估深海FOWP项目的风险.
- 开发一个可靠的方法来权衡风险标准和专家在FOWP风险评估.
- 为建立深海FOWP提供可操作的风险管理策略.
主要方法:
- 对深海FOWP的16个风险标准的识别和分组.
- 使用犹的模糊语言术语集 (HFLTS) 和三角模糊数字 (TFN) 来表示数据.
- 整合分析网络流程 (ANP) 和消除标准影响方法 (MEREC) 的标准权重,结合专家信任和一致性.
主要成果:
- 深海FOWP项目的整体风险水平被评为"中等".
- 联合ANP-MEREC方法有效地确定了标准和专家权重,平衡主观性和客观性.
- 敏感性和比较分析证实了风险评估结果的可靠性.
结论:
- 开发的框架提供了一个系统的方法来识别和评估深海FOWP的风险.
- 建议有效的风险管理策略,包括经济,政策,技术,环境和管理方面.
- 这项研究有助于安全和可持续地推进深海浮动海上风能.
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