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在将区域飞机排放调查扩展到盆地排放估计时,未解决的不确定性
Daniel Zimmerle1, Sonu Dileep2, Casey Quinn3
1Energy Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80524, United States.
Environmental science & technology
|April 2, 2024
概括
空中调查有效地检测到来自石油和天然气设施的甲羽毛,但将这些发现扩展到盆地水平的排放引入了重大不确定性,特别是在维护事件和羽毛漂移方面.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 广泛的空中调查对于识别石油和天然气 (O&G) 设施的甲排放至关重要.
- 使用这些方法将排放检测 (羽毛) 扩展到盆地水平,涉及不确定性.
- 之前的研究还没有完全解决与空中甲柱数据扩展相关的偏差.
研究的目的:
- 来自石油和天然气设施的空中甲柱数据缩放的不确定性量化.
- 分析与维护事件相吻合的羽毛的频率.
- 评估中游设施的羽毛数据的代表性,并调查未对齐的羽毛.
主要方法:
- 在丹佛-朱尔斯堡盆地进行飞机实地研究的分析.
- 利用了12629个石油和天然气设施的地理空间库存.
- 在6周的时间内,从7个中游和生产运营商获得了内置的维护事件数据.
主要成果:
- 检测到的大量羽毛 (9.2-46%) 可能与维护事件有关,这对于飞机来说很难准确估计.
- 中流设施的甲浮现不常见且不可预测,质疑这些估计的代表性.
- 四个羽毛 (占总检测排放量的19%) 与任何O&G设施都不一致,这表明向下风的漂移并突出了羽毛来源归因的不确定性.
结论:
- 将空中甲羽数据扩展到盆地排放需要解决与维护事件,中游设施排放和羽流漂移相关的不确定性.
- 提高盆地级甲排放估计的准确性需要额外的数据输入,例如详细的地理信息系统数据和精细的采样策略.
- 虽然空中调查是有价值的,但对于强大的扩展,需要对排放持久性和频率进行更细致的分析.
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