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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

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Published on: July 24, 2016

阿富汗未来降水的时空空间变化为共同的社会经济路径

Sayed Tamim Rahimi¹, Ziauddin Safari², Shamsuddin Shahid^2,3

¹Department of Civil Engineering, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur, Pakistan.

|April 4, 2024

概括

全球变暖将改变阿富汗的降雨量,影响农业. 较高排放场景预计某些地区降雨量增加,但预计区域降雨量也会大幅下降,存在相当大的不确定性.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
环境科学环境科学
农业气象农业气象学

背景情况:

全球变暖导致降水变化不均,需要进行区域评估,特别是对于像阿富汗这样依赖农业的国家.
新的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 和全球气候模型 (GCM) 模拟需要更新降水变化评估.

研究的目的:

在使用CMIP6 GCMs的各种SSP下,预测阿富汗各地的空间和时间降水变化.
通过评估阿富汗农业部门至关重要的未来降水趋势,为政策更新提供信息.

主要方法:

利用六个偏差纠正的CMIP6 GCM与全球降雨气候中心 (GPCC) 数据 (1.0°分辨率) 进行了调整.
计算了气候变化因素,以评估近期 (2020-2059) 和远期 (2060-2099) 未来的降水变化.
采用多模型组合 (MME) 方法来进行可靠的预测.

主要成果:

多模型组合预测表明,在较高排放SSP下,阿富汗大部分地区的降水量增加.
观察到显著的区域差异:西南地区夏季降水量增加约50% (SSP1-1.9),但到2100年西北地区降水量下降50%以上.
预计每年的降水量增加至15% (SSP1-2.6,西北) 和~20% (SSP2-4.5,西南/东).
根据SSP3-7.0.0,预计中部/西部地区的夏季降水量将大幅增加 (~50%).

结论:

预计阿富汗未来的降雨模式在空间上是异质的,有些地区的降雨量增加,有些地区的降雨量减少,尤其是在排放量较高的情况下.
调查结果强调,由于预计的气候变化,阿富汗迫切需要适应性农业战略.
在GCM中存在相当大的不确定性,这凸显了需要继续研究和改进建模的需要.

关键词:

偏差校正 - 偏差校正气候变化是一个因素.全球气候模型.多模组合组合多模组合组合.

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